Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-20 104374.210351 109938.221001 115493.349627 121452.137220 127659.183811 133930.552669 140742.062020
2025-07-27 95586.249522 104137.415747 112904.974375 122555.253174 132867.539240 143545.738211 155427.260108
2025-08-03 88663.787216 99232.000848 110298.645612 122728.579346 136277.327973 150574.355831 166778.042690
2025-08-10 83466.504667 95555.883571 108441.066432 123158.924697 139465.774110 156940.824685 177044.169079
2025-08-17 78982.579089 92249.316234 106610.703084 123257.242745 141964.035254 162279.071876 185949.882986
2025-08-24 75970.705599 90323.769598 106076.411541 124573.030113 145618.021788 168737.928038 195976.202869
2025-08-31 72441.729054 87585.663692 104422.799491 124433.130726 147464.217820 173037.963195 203475.160211
2025-09-07 70357.173660 86365.202076 104371.771125 126004.898041 151160.851270 179360.274766 213225.399770
2025-09-14 68178.640448 84908.086419 103935.585368 127030.289803 154146.497782 184814.481655 221954.020186
2025-09-21 65709.099369 82987.736922 102851.605487 127200.305503 156055.052296 188967.385573 229144.044716
2025-09-28 63467.227436 81238.450558 101878.569182 127416.795268 157947.662001 193051.320122 236225.030517
2025-10-05 62405.055098 80854.155120 102480.283716 129464.721772 161978.764789 199630.250365 246246.928230
2025-10-12 61169.354296 80228.666816 102778.451487 131153.691261 165612.457382 205800.073306 255886.434857
2025-10-19 59635.699710 79178.307258 102514.655898 132126.368238 168366.255833 210927.542813 264317.396772
2025-10-26 57776.760209 77654.339801 101610.979328 132263.979721 170067.433155 214772.783150 271211.774539
2025-11-02 56183.658654 76406.512112 100996.203433 132710.558298 172109.987445 219009.169237 278577.009639
2025-11-09 54517.310144 75007.797088 100141.709742 132812.543308 173692.027926 222665.580973 285235.657099
2025-11-16 53555.209208 74475.842287 100343.912953 134210.235548 176862.924349 228258.717149 294274.785433
2025-11-23 51933.738219 73037.291555 99351.968063 134061.438932 178074.320334 231430.602792 300345.015905
2025-11-30 51214.732648 72751.097633 99807.076322 135731.509643 181559.540938 237412.930334 309904.204959
2025-12-07 50277.778753 72144.964433 99824.086348 136820.920597 184301.478510 242477.125273 318348.748499
2025-12-14 48993.274031 71037.617827 99157.933483 137001.541078 185868.279029 246067.709404 324966.445606
2025-12-21 47788.031465 70001.040114 98552.043784 137231.532349 187477.085521 249701.323890 331643.562902